Geithner says no “near-term quick fixes” to avert possible currency war – Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner in remarks on Oct. 6 effectively placed Chinese employment on a higher pedestal of priorities than U.S. job retention and creation. This is important for forex traders to keep in mind as they consider possible movements in the greenback. It is also important to note that his remarks came in the wake of a recent pronouncement by the Brazilian finance minister citing the danger of a global “currency war.” In his opening remarks at the Washington-based Brookings Institute, Geithner did not refer to China by name. The clash of exchange rate systems is “unfair to countries that were already running more flexible regimes and let their currencies depreciate,” Geithner said. But he let China off the hook by adding that the problem “requires a cooperative approach to solve because emerging economies individually will be less likely to move – to allow their currencies to move up unless they’re confident other countries will move with them.” It is universally accepted that China, by keeping the exchange rate of the renminbi artificially weak, is able to bolster its export sector and keep its employment rolls at a high level. According to Geithner, the “main problem” is having a set of emerging economies that remain undervalued and are fighting the pressures for appreciation. “This is not a sustainable strategy for them, with their trading partners or with the countries they are competing against,” Geithner said, again without calling out China. Finally, in response to a question about the Asian behemoth, Geithner could not escape mentioning the country by name. “China will be less likely to move, allow its exchange rate to appreciate more rapidly, if it’s not confident other countries will move with it,” he said. The exchange rate imbroglio “is the central existential challenge of cooperation internationally as it has been for a long period of time,” Geithner said, adding that the solution should not rest solely on the shoulders of the U.S. “It’s better for it to come in a multilateral context, not countries using us to help advance this issue because it is a sensitive, complicated thing,” he concluded.

Immediate outlook for greenback remains grim – The Japanese yen and the euro continue to pummel the U.S. dollar and the forex market is uncertain when the tide will significantly turn. At the moment, it seems that the so-called red line for another Bank of Japan intervention is not written in stone. There is widespread belief that a possible intervention is politically unfeasible before the conclusion of the Group of Seven meeting this weekend in Washington. Forex traders should keep a watchful eye on developments in D.C. The USD/JPY pair hit a 15-year low of 82.75 on Oct. 6. Looking to Europe, forex traders are awaiting developments at a 12:30 GMT news conference with Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank. On Oct. 6, the euro came within a whisker of hitting $1.40. In 2008, the euro hit its record high of about $1.60 while this past June it was at a low of around $1.1880. The euro will likely be bolstered by today’s news that German industrial production jumped 1.7% in August when compared to July. The downside to the strengthening euro could be weaker export demand that would be a potential body blow to the German manufacturing sector. On the other hand, disappointing U.S. employment figures from ADP on Oct. 6 and the possibility of a dismal Labor Department employment report on Oct. 8 could further dampen enthusiasm for the USD.

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FY 2010 federal deficit “slightly lower” than expected – The federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2010 was a tad under $1.3 trillion, down $125 billion from the figure for FY 2009, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s Monthly Budget Review that was published on Oct. 7. Of particular interest, however, was the increase in federal receipts in September – $26 billion entered the Treasury Department’s coffer during the month, an increase of 12% when compared to September 2009. Corporate income tax receipts showed a healthy $20 billion increase for the month. For the full FY 2010, corporate income tax receipts jumped by $53 billion, a 39% increase over 2009. On the downside, total receipts of individual income and payroll taxes sank by $43 billion, which was a 2% decline from the previous year. Income and payroll taxes that were withheld took a slight drop of $13 billion, or 1%, compared to 2009. Nonwithheld receipts fell by 10% or $35 billion. These figures suggest the growth in taxable corporate income is not linked to a corresponding growth in employment. This is an indicator that forex traders should keep on file in their memory banks.

Upcoming G-20 meeting could be explosive – Despite pledges of international cooperation, the long-simmering dispute over currencies and exchange rates was not resolved at the just-concluded annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund. Once again, China was in the cross-hairs of U.S. and European small arms fire. However, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, were subdued in their criticism of China and steadfastly refused to bring their heavy artillery into play. As countries with undervalued currencies “lean against appreciation,” global economic recovery is placed in jeopardy, Geithner warned. Once again, the Chinese likely view the Western economic powerhouses as “paper tigers.” Jawboning the Chinese over their undervalued renminbi does not seem to work. National leaders are set to convene in Seoul, South Korea next month for the wrap-up of the G-20 confabs which feature preparatory meetings involving finance ministers and others. According to news reports, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, in reference to the ongoing disagreements over foreign exchange, said on Oct. 11: “If each country insists on its own interest during the recovery phase, it will bring about trade protectionism and will cause the world economy very big problems.”

Upward movement of euro helped by optimistic PMI; U.S. and euro zone nations piling on China over renminbi exchange rate

Some uncertainty over reasons for euro’s continued strengthening – The euro received a boost in Oct. 5 morning trading in the aftermath of a report showing a rise in the purchasing managers’ index (PMI). The PMI is seen as a valuable economic indicator and the upward movement could be a sign that economic recovery in the euro zone is not illusory. However, some analysts are suggesting the strengthening euro may primarily be the result of a perception the currency is one of the few hard currencies available. On the other side of the globe, the Bank of Japan, by changing its overnight target rate to a range of 0.0% – 0.1%, eased its monetary policy. The last time the BOJ had a zero-interest rate was in mid-2006. The BOJ action resulted in a slight rise in the USD/JPY pair that lasted for the blink-of-an-eye. And there is still no sure sign that the Japanese central bank will again intervene to devalue the yen.

Euro zone joins U.S. as another paper tiger – The real effective exchange rate of the Chinese renminbi “remains undervalued,” according to Jean-Claude Juncker, chairman of the grouping of euro-zone finance ministers. Euro-zone nations are calling for a broad-based appreciation of the renminbi that is handled in an orderly and significant manner, Juncker said at a press conference after meeting with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao. Translating Juncker’s diplomatic mumbo-jumbo into plain English, he admitted that he effectively received the cold shoulder from Wen on this issue. Both the United States and the European Union have ramped-up their criticism of China’s determination to keep its currency artificially low. Last week, in response to the Chinese currency policy, the House of Representatives passed a resolution that could be a stepping stone to sanctions against China. The response by most observers to these latest developments was more yawning and acknowledgement that the U.S. trade deficit with China will see no improvement.

Feisty Montana will go toe-to-toe with Chinese – Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.), chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, will tackle the issue of China’s currency practices when he visits Beijing next week. “China’s currency undervaluation hurts American ranchers and farmers, American exports and American jobs,” Baucus said. The Chinese government must take meaningful action to address its currency practices and the U.S. must be vigilant in pushing China on this issue, said Baucus. The senator sees his trip as providing the opportunity to discuss China’s currency manipulation and other key economic and trade issues with top Chinese officials. Experienced forex traders are dubious the senator’s visit will produce positive results for the U.S. The Senate Finance Committee has jurisdiction over foreign trade. Meanwhile, during a recent interview aired on CNN, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, was hurled back at criticism coming from Capitol Hill. Some Americans, particularly some members of Congress, do not really understand China, he said. They are politicizing the problems in bilateral relations, Wen added.

Greenback may act like a punch drunk pugilist – Will the U.S. dollar continue to face a clobbering at the hands of the euro and Japanese yen? That is the dilemma facing forex traders as the trading week gets into full stride. With the euro topping $1.37 barrier and the USD/JPY pair hovering around the 83.35 level, all eyes will be on U.S. economic reports coming out during the next few days. Today there will be new data on U.S. factory orders and pending home sales. ADP employment figures for September will be announced on Wednesday. Weekly jobless claims will be revealed the following day and, on Friday, the unemployment rate for September will hit the headlines. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will be making public remarks later today. Forex traders must remain alert to the possibility of another round of quantitative easing – a monetary policy also known as QE 2 – from the Fed. Meanwhile, over in Japan, another intervention may be in the works and forex traders should not be asleep at the wheel.

Wall Street trading locked at slight rises last Friday, though the week’s summary recorded a light retreat on the leading indexes, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 0.3%, the NASDAQ index plummeting 0.4%, and the S&P 500 index descending 0.2%.

In the American macroeconomic sphere, today we expect the publishing of order data from US factories for the month of August. According to analysts’ predictions, this index is expected to descend 0.4%.  Thursday will open the season of quarterly reports in the US with the publishing of quarterly reports for the American aluminum giant Alcoa. As the previous report season has been successful, so is this one expected to be. On Friday, investor attention will be focused on the monthly employment report reflecting the state of the labor market in the world’s largest economy.

Asia’s stock markets have recorded rises this morning based on the rise of commodity prices and the weakening of the Yen, adding support to the Japanese export industry. As such, the Tokyo stock exchange climbs 0.5%, Hong Kong climbs 1.4%, Seoul strengthens by 0.4%, Taiwan rises by 0.1%, whereas the Shanghai exchange has been closed today due to holidays.

In the global currency sphere, the United States dollar has strengthened slightly against the leading currencies since the opening of trade during the night, strengthening by 0.1% against the Yen to a level of 83.30. The greenback strengthens 0.2% against the Euro to a level of 1.376. America’s currency weakens by 0.1% against the British pound, reaching a level of 1.5810 United States dollars per British pound.

Technical Analysis

NZD/USD

After rising to an impressive ten-month high around the 0.7460 mark, the New Zealand dollar – United States dollar pair is expected to experience a slight correction today before continuing its positive trend. Throughout the last three weeks, the pair has created a downwards-tilted trench pattern. After braking its ascent at the upper border of the pattern that serves as a resistance level, the pair will inevitably descend to its lower level marked at 0.7380.

At that point the pair is likely to find sufficient support to restart its upwards trend, moving towards the 0.7500 level, carrying on towards the 0.7650 resistance level. That said, a daily close below the lower border of the pattern and trigger level marked off at 0.73500 will signal of a potentially stronger correction that may retreat down to the strong support level and 200-day moving average at 0.7100.

EUR/USD

The Euro – United States dollar pair has completed the fifth wave in the Elliot wave sequence, rising from the 1.2600 low to the high mark of around 1.3800 at the close of Friday’s trading. Having reached its goal, the pair is definitely expected to begin a downwards correction, creating a sell opportunity.

Our trigger for a sell deal is the trend line accompanying the last wave of upwards movements (the 5th wave) passing through the 1.3680 trend line. Only a decisive breach of that level (by a daily close under it) will confirm the beginning of downwards movements. In such a case, the pair is expected to continue moving south, towards the first support level at 1.3510, and later on, to the further support level around 1.3150 United States dollars for one Euro.

Good news from Ireland, Greece, Spain and Germany – The euro has gained significant strength today on the heels of encouraging results of bond sales in Ireland, Greece and Spain, as well as a possible shakeup in a vulnerable segment of the German banking sector. Irish, Greek and Spanish debt sales came off without a hitch and exceeded expectations. Meanwhile, reports have surfaced that two key German landesbanks, which are state owned, are now in merger discussions. Landesbanks are seen by many as the weak link in the German banking sector and their leadership has been summoned by Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble to a meeting next week. The finance minister, in his invitation, said the landesbanks must draw appropriate conclusions from the financial crisis and there must be a reorientation of this banking sector. This is seen as a very positive development.

More information for the forex trader toolbox – This week’s key financial data calendar kicks off on Sept. 21 in Washington with the release of reports on housing starts and building permits for August, followed by a meeting of the Federal Open Markets Committee which will make a rate decision for September. On Sept. 22, the figures on new industrial orders in the euro zone become available. Sept. 23 will see euro zone reports, provided by Markit (a financial information services firm), on PMI in the manufacturing and services sectors. Existing home sales data for the U.S. also will be released. A report on the business climate for industry and trade in Germany, produced monthly by the Munich-based economic research institute CESifo, is due out on Sept. 24. A report on U.S. durable goods orders for August will also be published on that date.

Eyes again on trend for euro and yen – After a breakout week for the EUR/USD pair which saw the euro hit a high above 1.3150, the forex market is asking whether the euro can sustain a level above 1.30. A lot will depend on whether economic reports to be released this week show the euro zone has entered a real slowdown. In addition, there are some concerns about the fiscal and financial conditions in Ireland, as well as the need for additional government support for German banks, especially the regional state-owned Landesbanken.  Meanwhile, across the Pacific, Japanese markets are closed on Sept. 20 and Sept.23, adding more uncertainty regarding additional intervention to keep a lid on the JPY.  Late last week, Jean-Claude Juncker, who speaks for euro zone finance ministers, leveled harsh criticism of the Japanese unilateral action. Successful interventions are usually multilateral in nature, and with a weak U.S. economy and serious questions about the euro zone economy, Japan cannot expect Washington and Brussels to jump to their support. Both economic giants need to bolster their exports, something that is unlikely if their currencies are too strong.

The foreign exchange also known as forex trading is the act of buying and selling currencies of different countries in the market to generate profit. Basically the trader must work with the broker to generate profit. Forex trading has lots of benefits that you may be able to get when trading.

Flexibility

Forex trading can be done worldwide. All you need is to have a computer and an excellent Internet connection. You can trade any time of the day. You can trade after office hours, or when you are relaxing at home. Basically, you are not required to adjust your schedule to trade in forex.

Higher Liquidity

Forex is referred as type of the trade that has top liquidity. When say high liquidity, it means that its assets have the capability to be converted into cash without minimizing in the price. It means that it is secure to bet an enormous amount of money to trade because the movement of the price can be minimal.

Trade more

The brokers in forex allow the traders to utilize leverage in trading in the markets. Leverage means that you trade more money than the amount in your acct.

The spread

Forex is actually minimal in cost when it comes to business. This means that term in forex has a difference in prices between buying price and selling price.

For person who knows and understands how the market behaves and has the right tools. Forex trading is a perfect investment options. You can have a greater profit than a mutual or bond funds. The profit that you may get from one transaction can surpass a year of interest from your fund investments.

If you are aware of the benefits that you may be able to have in forex. You may have all the guts to start trading in forex. We all know that this is more difficult for the first time. You may be confused of the terminologies used in trading with forex. But once you have understood how the forex behave money making should be easy.

The factors that affect the rise and fall of the values of currencies in forex trading, still remains the same until now. The benefits of forex trading are extremely very useful, especially for the people who have the best understanding about forex trading.